Mobilizing Youth

Polling Young Voters. Vol II Dec. 2006

What: Analysis by bi-partisan team from Young Voter Strategies
When: Dec 2006
Link: http://www.youngvoterstrategies.org/index.php?tg=fileman&idx=get&inl=1&id=1&gr=Y&path=Booklets&file=Polling+Young+Voters+Volume+II.pdf

MV Reading Notes:

Record number of young voters turned out because of a desire for change in politics. So mostly voted for Democrats at a rate of 59 to 36%. Biggest issues are:

• Iraq: 43%

• Health care: 37%
• Creating jobs: 36%
• Homeland security: 36%
• College affordability: 31%

Youth vote targeting increased turnout. PIRG areas of focus doubled in turnout! Some up to 5 times more.

Jon Tester’s campaign included a targeted youth outreach component. Young Montanans turned out in huge numbers: 17% of the electorate (compared with 12% nationwide). Voting for tester 56% compared to 44% for his opponent.

Those contacted by a GOTV effort were 10 points more likely to vote. Live calls can increase turnout by up to 5%.

If you ask them, they will vote.

Most diverse generation ever.

Stats:

• 36 % of 18-29 year olds voted for Reps
• 59% voted for Dems
• The youngest voters gave Dems widest margin (18-22)
• Young African Americans were more likely to vote than any other group – they strongly lean Dem. Health care and jobs are top issues.
• Latinos fastest growing pop. There are 5.5 million 18-29 yr old latino citizens. With 50K more every month. Supported Dems by a 41 point margin. War, education, and jobs are top issues. 26% said immigration issues was most important issue (vs 21% overall)
• Born again Christians gave bush highest approval rating.
• Single young women more likely to be Dems than married counterparts. Iraq most important issue for all young women.

Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004

What: Report on Voting Stats from 2004 Election. US Census Bureau.
When: March 2006
Link: http://www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/p20-556.pdf

Official Summary:

This report examines the levels of voting

and registration in the November 2004

presidential election, the characteristics

of citizens who reported that they were

registered for or voted in the election,

and the reasons why registered voters

did not vote.

MV Reading Notes:

Likelihood that someone will vote once registered remains high. Women slightly more likely to vote. Most VA citizens were born in the US. Key difference between young and old voters is rate of registration. Transient lifestyle prevents young people from keeping their registration up to date. Young people had lowest voting and registration rates, but the largest increase in rates since 2000. Document has full breakdown of voting and reg rates by all kinds of demographic data (p4). Young adults with at least a bachelor’s degree voted at much higher rates (67%). Election day registration has upward effect on voting rates. Chart that shows voting by state. Info about common methods of voter registration.

32 million people reported that they were not registered. 47% said that they were not interested. 17% said that they missed deadlines. 7% not eligible. 5 % didn’t know how. 4% said their vote wouldn’t make a difference. 24% of young people said that they missed the deadlines.

Young people were not in the majority of those that said they are apathetic to politics. In fact, they had the lowest % of all age groups (p11). Top reason for not voting was conflicting schedule!

Good chart about why didn’t vote.

Stats:

For 2004 Election

• 64% of voting-age (VA) citizen turnout (vs 60% in 2000)
• that’s 126 million people (+ 15million from 2000)
• 72% of VA pop was registered to vote (142 million).
• 54% voted, 126 million
• 72% of citizens 55+ voted
• 47% of citizens 18-24 voted
• 67% of young adults with a bachelor’s degree voted
• 89% of registered citizens voted
• 55 million potential VA citizens were not registered

MV Thoughts:

Interesting how much education level affects voting rates. Interesting that there is no specific online stat for method of voter registration. This data is stark ammunition against those who say that youth are apathetic – shows them to be the lease apathetic of any age group… and the most disorganized, which accounts for their lack of registration and forgetting to vote on election day… and points to the difficulty of the process.

Young Voters By the Numbers

What: 2 pager by Young Voter Strategies
When: Sometime in 2006
Link: http://www.youngvoterstrategies.org/index.php?tg=fileman&idx=get&inl=1&id=1&gr=Y&path=Research&file=Young+Voters+by+the+Numbers.pdf

MV Reading Notes:

Great summary of young voters demographic profile. Gen Y is most diverse generation in history. On way to becoming a force in elections. Turnout has increased substantially in 2004 and 2006. When comparing presidential to presidential election – and midterm to midterm, the numbers of young voters have been growing steadily since 2000 [and this is the right comparison to make since its apples to apples].

Stats:

In 2008: there will be 50 million young voters (18-31yrs old) or approximately 22% of voting age population

• 35 million more GenYers (9-17) will become voters in next several years
• When all reach voting age, will number 82 million or 36% of the population
• 1/3rd of the electorate by 2015
• 61% white, 18% Hispanic, 14% African American, 5% Asian.
• 2000: 15.9m votes cast, 40% of 18-29 yrs olds
• 2002: 8.9m votes, 22% [midterm]
• 2004: 20.1m votes, 49%
• 2006: 10m votes, 24 % [midterm]

MV Thoughts:

What’s amazing to me is that young people have been ignored as a voting block for so long. I was just reading an article about how in 2006, campaigns focused most of their efforts on voters aged 30+. While it makes a lot of sense to spend a good deal of attention on the voters who have a proven voting record, it makes little sense to ignore young people (for one, they have a proven voting record as these YVS stats show).

You know, there’s this giant amount of oil deep in the Colorado Rockies. Scientists are working around the clock to figure out how to extract it. It’s tricky business, because the oil shale needs to be heated up in order to release its bounty – and then the oil has to be pumped up to the surface without contaminating underground water supplies. They’re building giant ice walls, complex underground heaters, and all kinds of new drilling technology. Why are they going through all of this trouble? Because, the oil shale formation in the Green River Basin is the largest fossil fuel deposit in the world – it’s got more than triple the proven oil reserves of Saudi Arabia.

In the world of politics, there’s another untapped national resource: the youth vote. The thing is, if this resource were oil, it’d be like a giant surface pool. It’s just not that difficult for a campaign to get to it. Certainly not when compared to the extraordinary efforts in Colorado. It’s a matter of listening, making a good faith effort to incorporate youth concerns into campaign positions, and then asking for their vote. The case for seeking the youth vote is so cut and dry, it’s a wonder that in 2006 we’re still reading stories about campaigns ignoring young people.

For info on voting and registration head to: http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/voting.html

2004 Voting and Registration Stats PDF 

[this report clearly shows that the first hurdle in accessing the youth vote is voter registration]

Oil Shale

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2005/RAND_MG414.sum.pdf

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/news_columnists/article/0,1299,DRMN_86_4051709,00.html