Mobilizing Youth

Reuters Interviews Luminaries in Second Life

What: Second Life interviews by Reuters correspondent
When: ~ Jan 29 2007
Link: http://secondlife.reuters.com

MV Reading Notes:

Reuters SL Bureu chief, "Adam Reuters" aka. Adam Pasick (http://secondlife.reuters.com/), interviews luminaries in SL including Gavin Newsom, Mitch Kapor, Niklas Zennstrom. The avatars are in traditional TV interview format (pretty boring), audio is streamed, visual cuts like TV. Has done a bunch of interviews in Davos - lots of discussion about SL. This site hosts a whole range of information about Second Life.

Interview Highlights:

Mitch Kapor:

• Asking what’s real, what’s virtual – realizing that those distinctions are artificial
• Second Life growing explosively – bubble will pop, but there’s a lot of substance that will not go away

Gavin Newsom:

• SL is the natural narrative that will grow out of the Howard Dean ascendancy. It’s more organic and more robust however

MV Thoughts:

Content of these interviews is interesting, but the main take away is that political and philanthropic luminaries are being interviewed in Second Life. It has become a political forum worthy of the attention of political decision makers.

Winning Young Voters

What: A guide to Youth Vote Organizing by Young Voter Strategies
When: Can’t find date, but based on 2004 election data.
Link: http://www.youngvoterstrategies.org/index.php?tg=fileman&idx=get&inl=1&id=1&gr=Y&path=Booklets&file=YVS+Candidate+Guide.pdf

MV Reading Notes:
Why focus on young voters:
• Surging numbers are voting
• Will be huge voting block in 2006/8
• Are passionate about their issues
• Almost evenly split Dem/Rep
• Not yet developed strong party loyalties
• If vote in 2 elections, likely to be a voter for life
• Have been making a difference in close races

Characteristics of Gen Y
• some very educated, but many still not in college
• more centrist than older voters
• more racially and ethnically diverse than any other generation
• their family and financial lives are much different than older generations (eg: many single parent homes. Many have jobs and lots of debt.)
• education predicts turnout
• 2/3rds of all 18-24 year olds are not found on a college campus

How to talk to young voters
• Make issues relevant to their lives
• Use positive simple language – don’t like trash talk
• Avoid insider jargon
• Take interactive approach – allow them to be heard
• Don’t be afraid to say ‘I don’t know’ – they like honesty
• Ask them to vote

Using the media
• be creative, have sense of humor
• chance to opt-in and participate very important (eg: internet apps)

Volunteers
• incorporate recruitment into every aspect of campaign
• always collect contact info
• give volunteers a project right away

College
• no on-campus photo-op dropins
• schools are dense, use them
• register them to vote
• create campus events
• ask everyone to volunteer
• do class visits with registration forms

Non Students
• go to events, transportation centers, bars, concerts
• 1 volunteer registers 5 voters/hour at big events
• look for precincts with high % of young people and use captains – this info is avail from census bureau
• canvassing can be very cost effective, especially with volunteers

GOTV
• tips for canvassing in this doc
• tips for phone banking
• tips for how to hire and organize a registration team

Young Voter Mobilzation Tactics

What: Young voter tactics compendium by Young Voter Strategies
When: Dec 2006
Link: http://www.youngvoterstrategies.org/index.php?tg=fileman&idx=get&inl=1&id=1&gr=Y&path=Booklets&file=YVS+Young+Voter+Mobilization+Tactics.pdf

Official summary:

This booklet outlines the best ways to reach and turn out young voters, from

phone banks to door knocks. Each tactic is evaluated through a randomized

field experiment in order to determine how much that tactic increases a person’s

likelihood to vote and for its cost-effectiveness.We also outline what does not

work and is not worth a campaign’s time or money.

We saw in 2004 that young people will vote when asked. This booklet gives

non-profits and political campaigns the tools to turn out young voters in 2006

and beyond.

Partisan canvassing had greatest effect.

Timing of canvassing greatly affects cost.

MV Reading Notes:

Key factor in surge in youth voting is investment in the field.

• Votes per contact will be higher when contact is more personalized and interactive (door to door by a peer, followed by in person phone banking with chatty scripts or volunteer calling, or online where user opts in)
• Young people need nuts and bolts practical information on how to vote.
• Easier voting processes (absentee voting) increased turnout
• Medium matters more than message
• Excluding young voters from lists is a mistake
• Ethnic and immigrant youth are cost effective targets – most trusted messenger is someone who looks like them
• Successful mobilization in one election leads to propensity to vote in next

Tactics:

• Partisan door to door canvassing has greatest impact for $11-14/voter
• Partisan leaflets dropped at door: $14/vote
• Nonpartisan door to door canvassing: $19/hr
• Timing: canvas during last three weeks: $20. Anytime prior: $105
• Partisan door hangars: $23
• Nonpartisan leaflets: $43
• Pro phone bank: $10.50
• Bilingual phone bank: $22
• Volunteer phone bank: $26
• Bilingual student phone bank: $27
• Robocalls: $275!
• Partisan Direct mail to Indian Americans: $40
• Nonpartisan direct mail to latinos: $100-150
• Partisan direct mail: $200

New tactics

• Parties at polls: $10
• Absentee ballot request mailer: $15.65
• Election day reminder calls: $11.61

Young Voters in the 2006 Elections

What: CIRCLE study on young voters behavior in 2006
When: Dec 2006
Link: http://www.youngvoterstrategies.org/index.php?tg=fileman&idx=get&inl=1&id=1&gr=Y&path=Press+Releases&file=FS-Midterm06.pdf

MV Reading Notes:

Young voters strong shift towards democrats continues. Dems won a sizeable number of the young independent voters. 62% strongly disapproved of the war (vs. 56% of general population). Majority believe that there should be a withdrawal. Most feel that the war as failed to improve long term security. Most are very dissatisfied with Bush.

Young voters were late to make up their minds. 44% within a week of election day (vs 28% as a whole)

Other issues of importance:

• raising the minimum wage
• 2/3rds voted to ban same sex marriage (same as other demographics)

Youth share of electorate in 2006: 13%

There’s other good data in here, but covered by some of the other previous reading summaries.

Polling Young Voters. Vol II Dec. 2006

What: Analysis by bi-partisan team from Young Voter Strategies
When: Dec 2006
Link: http://www.youngvoterstrategies.org/index.php?tg=fileman&idx=get&inl=1&id=1&gr=Y&path=Booklets&file=Polling+Young+Voters+Volume+II.pdf

MV Reading Notes:

Record number of young voters turned out because of a desire for change in politics. So mostly voted for Democrats at a rate of 59 to 36%. Biggest issues are:

• Iraq: 43%

• Health care: 37%
• Creating jobs: 36%
• Homeland security: 36%
• College affordability: 31%

Youth vote targeting increased turnout. PIRG areas of focus doubled in turnout! Some up to 5 times more.

Jon Tester’s campaign included a targeted youth outreach component. Young Montanans turned out in huge numbers: 17% of the electorate (compared with 12% nationwide). Voting for tester 56% compared to 44% for his opponent.

Those contacted by a GOTV effort were 10 points more likely to vote. Live calls can increase turnout by up to 5%.

If you ask them, they will vote.

Most diverse generation ever.

Stats:

• 36 % of 18-29 year olds voted for Reps
• 59% voted for Dems
• The youngest voters gave Dems widest margin (18-22)
• Young African Americans were more likely to vote than any other group – they strongly lean Dem. Health care and jobs are top issues.
• Latinos fastest growing pop. There are 5.5 million 18-29 yr old latino citizens. With 50K more every month. Supported Dems by a 41 point margin. War, education, and jobs are top issues. 26% said immigration issues was most important issue (vs 21% overall)
• Born again Christians gave bush highest approval rating.
• Single young women more likely to be Dems than married counterparts. Iraq most important issue for all young women.

Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2004

What: Report on Voting Stats from 2004 Election. US Census Bureau.
When: March 2006
Link: http://www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/p20-556.pdf

Official Summary:

This report examines the levels of voting

and registration in the November 2004

presidential election, the characteristics

of citizens who reported that they were

registered for or voted in the election,

and the reasons why registered voters

did not vote.

MV Reading Notes:

Likelihood that someone will vote once registered remains high. Women slightly more likely to vote. Most VA citizens were born in the US. Key difference between young and old voters is rate of registration. Transient lifestyle prevents young people from keeping their registration up to date. Young people had lowest voting and registration rates, but the largest increase in rates since 2000. Document has full breakdown of voting and reg rates by all kinds of demographic data (p4). Young adults with at least a bachelor’s degree voted at much higher rates (67%). Election day registration has upward effect on voting rates. Chart that shows voting by state. Info about common methods of voter registration.

32 million people reported that they were not registered. 47% said that they were not interested. 17% said that they missed deadlines. 7% not eligible. 5 % didn’t know how. 4% said their vote wouldn’t make a difference. 24% of young people said that they missed the deadlines.

Young people were not in the majority of those that said they are apathetic to politics. In fact, they had the lowest % of all age groups (p11). Top reason for not voting was conflicting schedule!

Good chart about why didn’t vote.

Stats:

For 2004 Election

• 64% of voting-age (VA) citizen turnout (vs 60% in 2000)
• that’s 126 million people (+ 15million from 2000)
• 72% of VA pop was registered to vote (142 million).
• 54% voted, 126 million
• 72% of citizens 55+ voted
• 47% of citizens 18-24 voted
• 67% of young adults with a bachelor’s degree voted
• 89% of registered citizens voted
• 55 million potential VA citizens were not registered

MV Thoughts:

Interesting how much education level affects voting rates. Interesting that there is no specific online stat for method of voter registration. This data is stark ammunition against those who say that youth are apathetic – shows them to be the lease apathetic of any age group… and the most disorganized, which accounts for their lack of registration and forgetting to vote on election day… and points to the difficulty of the process.

Young Voters By the Numbers

What: 2 pager by Young Voter Strategies
When: Sometime in 2006
Link: http://www.youngvoterstrategies.org/index.php?tg=fileman&idx=get&inl=1&id=1&gr=Y&path=Research&file=Young+Voters+by+the+Numbers.pdf

MV Reading Notes:

Great summary of young voters demographic profile. Gen Y is most diverse generation in history. On way to becoming a force in elections. Turnout has increased substantially in 2004 and 2006. When comparing presidential to presidential election – and midterm to midterm, the numbers of young voters have been growing steadily since 2000 [and this is the right comparison to make since its apples to apples].

Stats:

In 2008: there will be 50 million young voters (18-31yrs old) or approximately 22% of voting age population

• 35 million more GenYers (9-17) will become voters in next several years
• When all reach voting age, will number 82 million or 36% of the population
• 1/3rd of the electorate by 2015
• 61% white, 18% Hispanic, 14% African American, 5% Asian.
• 2000: 15.9m votes cast, 40% of 18-29 yrs olds
• 2002: 8.9m votes, 22% [midterm]
• 2004: 20.1m votes, 49%
• 2006: 10m votes, 24 % [midterm]

MV Thoughts:

What’s amazing to me is that young people have been ignored as a voting block for so long. I was just reading an article about how in 2006, campaigns focused most of their efforts on voters aged 30+. While it makes a lot of sense to spend a good deal of attention on the voters who have a proven voting record, it makes little sense to ignore young people (for one, they have a proven voting record as these YVS stats show).

You know, there’s this giant amount of oil deep in the Colorado Rockies. Scientists are working around the clock to figure out how to extract it. It’s tricky business, because the oil shale needs to be heated up in order to release its bounty – and then the oil has to be pumped up to the surface without contaminating underground water supplies. They’re building giant ice walls, complex underground heaters, and all kinds of new drilling technology. Why are they going through all of this trouble? Because, the oil shale formation in the Green River Basin is the largest fossil fuel deposit in the world – it’s got more than triple the proven oil reserves of Saudi Arabia.

In the world of politics, there’s another untapped national resource: the youth vote. The thing is, if this resource were oil, it’d be like a giant surface pool. It’s just not that difficult for a campaign to get to it. Certainly not when compared to the extraordinary efforts in Colorado. It’s a matter of listening, making a good faith effort to incorporate youth concerns into campaign positions, and then asking for their vote. The case for seeking the youth vote is so cut and dry, it’s a wonder that in 2006 we’re still reading stories about campaigns ignoring young people.

For info on voting and registration head to: http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/voting.html

2004 Voting and Registration Stats PDF 

[this report clearly shows that the first hurdle in accessing the youth vote is voter registration]

Oil Shale

http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2005/RAND_MG414.sum.pdf

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/news_columnists/article/0,1299,DRMN_86_4051709,00.html

Robo calls during 2006 Election

What: Report from Pew/Internet
When: Dec 2006
Link: http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_Robocalls06.pdf

MV Reading Notes:

64% of registered voters received robo-calls in final 2 months of 2006 election. 2^nd most popular way for campaigns to reach voters (behind direct mail: 71%). 24% received a call from a human. 18% visited at home. 14% received email.

Those more likely to vote were contacted more often, including those over 30.

MV Thoughts:

Missed opportunity in contacting young people. Robo calls unlikely to make a difference and have a very high cost – find the study that shows this fact.

The Role of the Internet in the 2006 Election Cycle

What: Report from Pew/Internet. In this PDF there are 2 sections of this document. I’ve broken up the reading notes into two parts so as to refer to them independently.
When: Jan 17, 2007
Link: http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_Politics_2006.pdf
Official Summary:
None.

MV Reading Notes:

In 2006, robo-calls took a prominent role, as did online video.

News market is in serious flux – fracturing. Audience is polarized – Dems going to dem sources and Reps going to Rep sources.

TV still dominates. Some are going to internet, however, to watch TV broadcasts. On any given day:

• 61% watched TV news
• 38% read a paper
• 21% got news online

15% say that internet was main source of political info – rivals radio.

Convenience is primary factor encouraging internet usage for political needs. Other reason is that allows person to dig deeper into subject matter. “Glocalization” = getting local and global news via internet at same time.

Most users used internet as a way to check candidate’s positions, voting records, and to fact check. 9% signed up to receive emails from candidate. 5% contributed money online, which is 3% of all Americans who gave money to a candidate. Many seeking contrary views.

Big increase in importance of video. Eg: George Allen’s decline after the ‘macaca’ comment and Burn’s dozing off.

There are some demographic stats in this document about age, gender, educational, regional, ethnic breakdowns in reference to internet usage. Also have good breakdown of what Pew calls “online political activists” – is gender balanced and heavily young.

Young:

• 2-1 lead for internet over newspapers as source for campaign news – internet is phasing out other sources
• Are especially likely to be “online activists” – favored democrats by a small margin.

Interesting Stats:

• Aug Pew survey shows 70% of Americans use internet
• 19% had customized their internet news services

MV Thoughts:

There are studies on inefficacy of robo-calls (find links).

Note importance of time-shifting TV broadcasts. People still want what TV has got, but they want it on their own time, so they watch it on the Internet. It would behoove a candidate to create a media center – where all clips related to that candidate can be watched at the voter’s leisure. Could even create a news channel that focuses on issues important to candidate.

Could set up ‘debates’ by cutting opponents publicly stated (and video recorded) positions with a purpose-shot response – this method would clearly lend itself to abuse – in being able to cut up an opponents intentions, but it would also enable voters to get more out of the debate format – to learn more about a candidate’s positions.

Internet Usage Doubles as Source of Political News

What: Report from Pew/Internet
When: Jan 17, 2007
Link: http://www.pewinternet.org/pdfs/PIP_Politics_2006.pdf
Official Summary:
Twice as many Americans used the internet as their primary source of news about the 2006 campaign compared with the most recent mid-term election in 2002.
Some 15% of all American adults say the internet was the place where
they got most of their campaign news during the election, up from 7% in
the mid-term election of 2002.

A post-election survey by the Pew Internet & American Life Project and
the Pew Research Center for The People & The Press shows that the 2006
race also produced a notable class of online political activists. Some
23% of those who used the internet for political purposes - the people
we call campaign internet users - actually created or forwarded online original political commentary or politically-related videos.

MV Reading Notes:
Get their news from TV in 2006: 69% - steadily declining since 1992.
From Newspapers: 34% - declining
From Radio: 17%- declining but not fast
From Internet: 15% (35% for young people)
• 60% from news portals
• 60% from tv network websites (cnn, etc)
• 48% from local news site
• 31% from newspaper’s sites
• 24% from issue web sites
• 20% from blogs
• 20% from candidates websites
• 19% from satire web sites
• see report for more… interesting.
From Magazines: 2%

Activities undertaken:
• 31% get news and discuss races via email
• 23% of users become campaign activists (14 million people)
o blogging, commenting
o forwarding
o create audio/video

Interesting Stats:
• broadband in home is 45% of US population

Young:
• young users say internet is more important source of news than newspapers (duh).

MV Thoughts:
• Ability to leverage ‘online activists’ will be ripe in 2008 – candidates web sites and partner’s websites can be created to convert this interest into action. Must ensure that users are rewarded with status, knowledge that their thoughts are being heard by candidate or other users, or simply via straightforward incentives (ie: free stuff).